Louisiana Governor’s Race – Key Survey Findings
Survey Results: A statewide survey of likely general election voters conducted by
McLaughlin & Associates finds that voters in Louisiana are still heavily divided on
their choice for Governor and the race remains wide open.
Senator David Vitter, who has virtually full name identification, currently
only receives 33% of the vote. This shows that Louisiana voters are clearly
searching for an alternative. It is also problematic for Vitter in that he
receives 15% of the African American vote of which he would not in all
likelihood retain.
These numbers give the former Lieutenant Governor’s campaign a reason
to be optimistic. In those areas where Scott Angelle is “on the air”, he has
an impressive 3.5 to 1 positive image ratio and 76% name awareness. Most
importantly, in those areas of the state where Angelle is “on the air” his
ballot share increases to 19%, cutting Vitter’s share down to just 24% and
Dardenne to 6%. This clearly illustrates the positive effect the Angelle
media campaign is having. Furthermore, in the Lafayette media market
back in January, Vitter led with 40% of the vote, now he only receives 17%,
while Angelle leads with 27%.
If voters have seen, read or heard anything about Scott Angelle within the
past couple of weeks, Angelle actually is in a statistical tie with Vitter at
nearly one-quarter of the vote and Edwards receives only 17%.
Among voters who have a formed opinion of both David Vitter and Scott
Angelle, Senator Vitter leads by only 2 points, 26% to 24%.
When voters were asked who their second choice for Governor would be,
Scott Angelle has improved from 9% to 14% in the past two months. These
gains are much larger in areas where the campaign has been “on the air.”
Angelle has improved his “second-choice” ballot share from 14% to 18% in
the Lafayette Media Market and 11% to 27% in the Lake Charles Media
Market.
Overall, Jay Dardenne has lost 3% of his ballot share in the last 2 months,
and only 25% of the voters who are favorable to him actually prefer him in
the ballot. This shows that Dardenne has little intensity to his support.
The Bottom Line:
The results of this survey clearly show that Senator David Vitter is a very weak
supposed front-runner. The fact that he is a sitting U.S. Senator and he only
receives approximately one-third of the vote clearly illustrates just how
vulnerable he is to a challenge. Scott Angelle’s campaign is gaining momentum,
especially in those areas where the campaign has been “on the air.” This explains
why both the Vitter and Dardenne campaigns have gone negative. They are trying
to stop the traction that the Angelle Campaign has gained. If the Angelle
Campaign has the necessary resources to continue to expand its communications
it should be in a good position for the upcoming election.
#LAGOV
